Los Nerdes Verdes: Run It Back or Clean House? – CAPITAL CITY SOCCER
For better or worse, the Austin FC squad we’re going to see start the season is going to look very similar to the team that missed out on the playoffs last year. 77.8% of the minutes played last season are returning for the Verde & Black — the 12th-highest in the league. Most of those lost minutes are multi-year contributors: Nick Lima (2,426 mins), Diego Fagundez (1,022), and Maxi Urruti (971).
Despite some frustrating stretches last season where Austin couldn’t score to save their lives, the Verde ended up with the 12-most goals in the league (48). While a steep drop off from their 64 goal tally in ‘22, you can see why Josh Wolff spent the offseason looking to shore up Austin’s defensive structure and tactics rather than overhauling the offense.
Diego Fagundez and Maxi Urruti scored some memorable goals for the club, but their underperformance in 2023 means their departure doesn’t necessarily point to a falloff in offensive production. Heading into the new year, Austin retain 81.2% of their goal and assist production — the 9th-highest returning percentage in the league.
While Austin supporters may not be 100% satisfied with the weapons available to put the ball in the back of the net, it’s worth recognizing that signings aren’t the only way to bolster the offense. The transition from the ‘21 to ‘22 seasons showed that tactical tweaks and improved chemistry on the pitch can get you production where there wasn’t any prior. Whether that’s the case this year we’ll have to wait and see.
For all of the conversations around the predictiveness of Austin’s 2022 underlying numbers, 2023 was certainly a wakeup call, and Rodo hasn’t been shy about the club’s need to significantly overhaul the roster. That was never more on display than the shock trade of club legend Diego Fagundez for a half-a-season player and cash money. Much to the consternation of many supporters, the utilization of that cash is not materializing quickly enough.
The signings the club has made point to areas of need and importance within Josh Wolff’s system — particularly at the fullback position with Guilherme Biro out of Brazil’s 2nd division and Mikkel Desler of Toulouse (who will make the move in the summer).
Austin FC crossed the ball at the 4th highest rate last season, and the over-reliance on blind crosses into the box was often fruitless and frustrating to watch. Improvements at the fullback position should not only make crosses more effective but should also make the team less one dimensional by deplying players out wide with a more well-rounded skill set.
The drop off in statistical output from 2022 to 2023 was dramatic from Austin FC’s best player. The rightful 2022 MVP reached just 50% of his ‘22 goal tally, 64% of his xG, and 71% of his shot creating actions.
Injuries played a massive role in that decline, both his own and his teammates’. Seba started 6 fewer games than he did in the season prior. Unfortunately, Austin’s talisman starts the season as the only player on the club’s injury report — sporting a Questionable designation with hamstring irritation.
Building chemistry with wingers not named Diego Fagundez and more consistency in the support he gets from the striker position will play a massive role in whether we see the Driussi of 2022 or 2023.
Adrian Healey, a figure that’s often used his legendary voice for Austin positivity, took to X to openly question the club — noting that by not firing Josh Wolff, the Austin front office is giving him a length of leash not typically offered to a coach with his relatively unproven track record.
https://x.com/AdrianHealey/status/1711456391284609371?s=20
Regardless of whether that’s a prudent decision, the stats support his sentiment. Phil West took a deep dive at the numbers towards the end of last season — highlighting community member, Derek Ensign’s, statistic that, “Compared to all coaches in MLS History (through 2019) who have coached 84 or more games, Josh Wolff is 41st out of 47 coaches with 1.26 points per game.” The problem with taking a position based solely on that data is that there are some notably prominent and successful managers for whom allowing that longer leash clearly paid off for the organization including Philly’s Jim Curtin.
While Rodo wouldn’t give specifics, he did indicate in a press conference just a few days ago that there are internal markers being monitored by the club based on his perceived strength of the current roster. LNV are dubbing this the Wolff Performance Improvement Plan.
If last year is any indication, we should see some goals today. Not necessarily because both sides are offensive powerhouses but because both teams were porous defensively, with Austin giving up the 4th most goals and Minnesota the 10th.
For the Loons, Emanuel Reynoso is as important to their team as anybody in the league. He plays a vital role in chance creation as well as their overall transition from defense to offense.
The midfielder, who accounted for 15% of the side’s G+A despite playing in just 18 matches, has been ruled out for tonight’s opener which should be some relief for an Austin back line that still has plenty of questions to answer.
Nothing will start to put the disappointment of last season in the rearview mirror more quickly than a leave-no-doubts win today. There’s no data that says you must win your opening game to have a successful season (2023 Columbus Crew got smacked by Philly 4-1 in their opening game last season and 2021 NYCFC lost to D.C. United of all teams), but the differences in 2022 and 2023 Austin FC demonstrate how quickly a narrative can form and shape your year. Let’s get this win… Listos!