Los Nerdes Verdes: Austin City (Diminishing) Limits – CAPITAL CITY SOCCER
Austin FC supporters have experienced the full range of emotions that come with MLS fandom — having narrowly missed out on both a Western Conference Final and a Wooden Spoon in the span of just three full years in the league. With those highs and lows, how have the Verde & Black averaged out compared to their counterparts over the last three seasons?
Over the last three full seasons combined, Austin FC have averaged 1.24 pts/game — good for just 21st. Supporters won’t love the company they’re keeping. Austin even fall 0.04 pts/game under the Rapids whose own fanbase have been fighting the Kroenke ownership for more investment over this time period.
Some silver linings, the past three seasons have seen Austin fight competitively with their Texas counterparts — averaging better than Houston and trailing just 0.05 behind Frisco. The Verde & Black are also bettering MLS darling Inter Miami since joining the league, although projecting it’ll stay that way is likely nothing more than wishful thinking.
By far the brightest spot for Austin the last three seasons have been on the offensive end. That’s certainly being pulled up by the success of 2022, but even accounting for all the valleys, ATXFC have averaged the 9th highest goal total per season (49.7). That puts them with the likes of Cinci (8th), Portland (8th), and NYCFC (11th). The advanced stats are where it all falls apart for the Verde & Black and helps underscore why Rodo and staff see 2022 as much more of an aberration that the norm. Over the last three seasons Austin have averaged just the 17th best xG (46.5) and 25th in xGA (54.6). That -8.07 xGD is 24th over this stretch and really helps explain the overall vibe supporting this team in its first three seasons.
Around the league, no one’s been as consistently strong as Philadelphia, carrying the league’s best points per game (1.73), goals per season (59), and goals against per season (34) over the last three years. New England’s actual output over this time period has put that club in an interesting position. Throughout the regular season, they show up time and time again (1.67 pts/game). Their ability to convert that into actual results come playoff time remains a hurdle.
We here at Los Nerdes Verdes aren’t above looking to the bottom to make ourselves feel better. With that in mind, let’s look at 21-23 Toronto FC. Over the last three years, they’ve averaged an abysmal 0.81 pts/game a full 30% worse than the 2nd worst side (Chicago Fire). Over that stretch they’re last in almost every statistical measure of output.
If we project St Louis’ 2023 inaugural season over the last three seasons, they’d rank 3rd in points per game (1.65), behind Philly (1.73) and New England (1.67). Their 62 goals last year would easily put them in first place, but their xG of 42.6 would have them ranked all the way down in 26th! If that sounds familiar, just ask Austin FC supporters. We can also attest to how difficult that level of overperformance is to repeat year over year. St. Louis’ underlying defensive stats don’t tell that much better of a story either — seeing them near the bottom of the league in xGA.
While just two games into the season, St. Louis have so far continued their record of overperformance having captured 4 of 6 potential points despite being underwater on xGD (-0.8). Even going away to Q2, they’ll like their chances to move that to the positive column. Austin FC have by far the worst xGD in the league: -3.1 with the 2nd lowest up at -2.5 (New England).
All indications are that the Verde & Black will have to wait another game to see Sebastian Driussi start. Although this season is fresh, we’re comfortable saying this team will struggle offensively without his creativity in the midfield. Austin has the leagues 4th-worst xG/90 and the 0.06 accumulated against Seattle was tied for the lowest over the last two seasons according to American Soccer Analysis.
Both matchups against St. Louis last season were marked by high profile mistakes and defensive lapses. With the low rate of offensive chances generated, Austin must play a clean game to have a chance. We’ve never gone this far into a season without a win. Does it happen today? Let us know. Listos!